MNI BRIEF: China Visitor Mobile Payments Surge in H1

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, July 26

MNI BRIEF: Foreign Firms Content In China

MNI BRIEF: Turkish Inflation Expectations Steady- TEBA

MNI China Press Digest July 26: Deposit Rates, Fiscal, PBOC

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY299.05 Bln via OMO Fri

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 589; OIL RIGS 482; GAS RIGS 101

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL JUL INDEX 66.4

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BoE Short APF Operation on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

While EUR Vols Have Crept Higher, ECB Impact Seen More Muted Relative to US CPI, NFP

OPTIONS
  • Despite broad consensus for no change at today’s ECB decision, EUR overnight vols have crept higher, with EUR/GBP implied nearing the best levels of 2024 having printed just over 8 points. This equates to markets pricing a ~25 pip swing in the cross over the course of the decision – a move which would bring yesterday’s lows of 0.8536 into contention in the event of EUR weakness. A weaker EUR into the Thursday NY cut would put the E300mln expiry at 0.8500 into play.
  • In relative terms, the vol premium being priced into EUR/USD, however, is shy of levels seen ahead of both the Nonfarm payrolls and US CPI releases this January – suggesting markets anticipate more muted market fallout to Lagarde’s press conference today.
  • The pricing out of ECB rate cuts in Q1 (an April 25bps cut is now roughly 50/50 having been fully priced as recently as early last week) has worked in favour of EUR option dynamics, with the 3m EUR/GBP risk reversal improving off mid-Jan lows and potentially concluding the downtrend off the Jun’23 high.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.