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Whisper, Primary Dealers More Bullish vs. Consensus

US DATA
  • Focus turns to today's payrolls release, and particularly average hourly earnings, seen re-accelerating to 0.3% from 0.24% prior. BBG consensus looks for +170k, however the whisper number and primary deal survey are more bullish, looking for +190k and +180k respectively.
  • The true trend of payrolls growth could be again by muddied this month. But the co-incidence of the end of the actors strike and the beginning of the UAW strike is expected to have had minimal impact on the headline due to this month’s survey period: the UAW strike began on September 15th – the very end of the survey week for this month’s data.
  • Full MNI NFP preview here, with primary dealer expectations below: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/56086/USNFPO...
Figure 1: Primary Dealer NFP Survey

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