Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
The May employment report is out at 0830ET: wide range of estimates in the BBG survey (+335k to +1m), with median +674k, MNI dealer median +650k. And for what it's worth, BBG Whisper is now up to +800k. It's a wide enough set of estimates that at least a few analysts will be able to claim they were "right" with their forecast.
- Those on the higher end of expectations (for instance Deutsche +800k) see leisure and hospitality fuelling a sizeable jobs gain amid reopening; some also pointing to strong ADP among other indicators.
- Among those who expect a below-consensus figure broadly see weakness via other surveys (TD +500k, citing lacklustre Homebase numbers in part), and supply constraints keeping headline growth suppressed.
- Fed advisors told MNI last monththat payroll employment is likely to stay in the range of 100k to 400k "for months" - a risk echoed by Richmond Fed economist Thomas Lubik in an MNI interview(though he was also cautiously optimistic for a 600-700k May figure, plus upward April revision).
- And our Reality Check published Thursday noted that despite soaring demand for employees, "a shortage of available workers is still capping job gains, recruiters and industry experts told MNI."
- Plenty of attention on potential revisions to April, as well as the finer details in the release.
Source: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok