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Wide Range To CPI Forecasts (0830ET)

CANADA
  • Bloomberg consensus has headline CPI unchanged at 6.7% Y/Y in April but there is another wide range to the survey of 6.3-6.9% (including across primary dealers).
  • Two of the three core measures are seen rising 0.1pps but the average is unchanged at 3.8% Y/Y on rounding (having increased 100bps since Oct). We watch to see if there are further upward revisions as in recent months.
  • Some renewed disruptions could have pushed goods inflation higher but watch CPI-common as an indicator of underlying service strength.
  • Scotia on used cars: StatCan will issue a technical paper outlining methodological plans and timing of including used vehicle prices in CPI but it won’t be included in the April CPI estimates. The most likely scenario is that prices will be incorporated going forward without including them in historical revisions, capturing the eventual deceleration in used vehicles prices.
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