Wide-ranging estimates on Labor.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: Wide-ranging estimates on Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.0%

median (62.7% prior), which would be lowest since 1975, but 62.1% high, and

54.2% low (albeit only 7 respondents).

- A lower LFPR means that the rise in the unemployment rate should be less

pronounced vs what it would otherwise be. There are expectations that some

unemployed workers receiving COVID-related benefits have stopped looking for a

new job altogether, meaning LFPR has likely slipped. A lower April unemp rate

than the 16% expected will be scrutinized for such denominator effects.

- Also, Wrightson ICAP notes that the employment-to-population ratio will be

more telling and could see a huge drop: "Look for decline in LFPR to a 43-year

low of 61.9, and a steeper decline is possible...[but] given the somewhat

arbitrary nature of the official estimates of unemployment and the labor force,

we will probably pay more attention to the other side of the equation - the

share of the adult population that is actually employed. We expect the

employment-to-pop ratio to fall by ten percentage points to 50% in April, versus

the recent cyclical high of 61.2% reached in January."