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Wider Near Term Crude Put Skew Amid Downside Risks

OIL OPTIONS

The near term call-put skews have continued to widen this week and the most bearish since mid December. Crude futures are back trading withing the range seen in the last couple of weeks after briefly trading through key resistance yesterday of 79.09$/bbl for front month WTI.

  • Market focus is on a possible OPEC+ cut extension widely expected in early March and ongoing Red Sea shipping disruption while downside risk comes from strong non-OPEC supplies and global demand concerns.
  • The Brent crude second month 25 delta call-put skew is today around -3.9% and the WTI second month skew is at -4.3%.
  • The Brent Dec24 call-put skew is holding steady at -4.6% while the WTI Dec24 skew continues to narrow slightly to -5.5% today.
  • Brent implied volatility has ticked up from the lowest since Sep 2023 last week to around 27.0% and WTI is at 28.5%.
  • Brent crude traded volumes were yesterday near normal with futures at 1.01m and options at 96k. WTI futures volumes were just below normal yesterday with futures volumes of 0.78m and options of 97k.
    • Brent MAY 24 down -0.6% at 81.68$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24 down -0.4% at 78.19$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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