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Wider Than Expected Trade Surplus, Pemex Oil Output

MEXICO
  • USDMXN has edged lower on Friday, although remains close to the middle of the week’s trading range around 17.16 at typing. Initial support to watch lies at 17.0566, the Jan 22 low, as markets turn their focus to the monthly US PCE report for December. Analysts continue to portion a very small probability to Banxico lowering the policy rate on Feb 08.
  • According to data from State Street Bank and Trust Co., about 36% of investors’ exposure to Mexican debt is currently hedged against a weaker peso. This level is near the highest level seen in last year, when currency volatility was picking up around the globe. Traders appear to already be positioning for the risk that MXN will suffer if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, as well as rising domestic fiscal uncertainty.
  • December’s much larger than expected trade surplus was driven primarily by a substantial drop in Petroleum imports. Separately on Friday, Pemex will report monthly crude and fuels production, exports and imports for December.
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