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Will Consensus Underestimate Core CPI Again?

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Reminder ahead of the October CPI release (0830ET) that consensus has underestimated core CPI in 5 of the last 6 months (July's reading missed to the downside).

  • The Cleveland Fed's core CPI % M/M nowcast has also missed in each of those months and in the same direction as consensus.
  • But the nowcast has been at least as good as the BBG median over that period (and much closer to the mark for the Aug and Sep data). See chart.


Source:BBG, Cleveland Fed, MNI

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