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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FOREX
- Momentum on the US Dollar has paused since its peak reached in the end of November; the DXY index has been oscillating around the 96 level in recent weeks.
- Part of the rally we observed in the second half of 2021 came from the policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks such as the ECB of BoJ.
- Fed decided to accelerate its 'tapering' to potentially proceed with several hikes in H2 2022 in order to ease the inflationary pressures, which have been accelerating in most of the developed and emerging market economies.
- The probability of 4 Fed hikes in 2022 have been gradually rising in the past few months, approaching 80% until today's NFP release.
- More rate hikes for 2022 should push preference for the Dollar in the near to medium term, especially against the Euro and the Yen.
- However, today's 'big miss' in Payrolls could increase the selling pressure on the USD in the short term.
- The DXY index has been approaching its 50DMA support at 95.7740, which has been rejected several times in recent weeks.
- A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 95, which represents the LT upward trending support line.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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