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- The worsening outlook amid rising Covid uncertainty has been weighing on the Euro in recent weeks (relative to the Swiss franc).
- EURCHF fell below its March 2020 low of 1.0580 last month and tested a local low at 1.0374 on Monday.
- Historically, CHF appreciation has been an issue for SNB policymakers as a strong franc (vs. Euro) has been generally associated with a fall in Swiss inflation.
- The surge in fuel and food prices this year has been supporting Swiss inflation, leading to a significant divergence between the two times series (EURCHF and Swiss CPI, see chart).
- However, will the CHF strength drag down Swiss CPI in the medium term when inflationary pressures start to ease globally?