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Williams Reiterates Positive Inflation Signs But Still “A Ways To Go” To Restrictive

FED
  • NY Fed’s Williams tells Fox Business that he signs of inflation moving in the right direction and that he is seeing forward indicators that inflation is turning.
  • This is consistent with comments from a Nov 28 speech: “That said, a few forward-looking indicators paint a more encouraging picture. Growth in rents for new leases has slowed sharply recently, implying that average rent growth and housing shelter price inflation should turn back down. We're also seeing some signs that the heat of the labor market is starting to cool, with quits and job openings declining from the high levels of the spring, along with indicators of slowing wage growth."
  • Still, we have “a ways to go” to get to restrictive stance, the Fed Funds rate needs to be sufficiently above the inflation rate and it will take a couple of years to see 2% inflation (taken from Bloomberg headlines).
  • Coming ahead of payrolls tomorrow, front Tsys see little reaction with the 2YY -2.7bps on the day having dropped 20bps on Powell yesterday.
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