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FED: Williams Sees Economic Strength & Fiscal Uncertainty Behind Higher Yields

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  • Speaking in a media scrum after an earlier appearance, NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) said Treasury yields haven’t been driven by inflation expectations and that yields instead reflect economic strength and fiscal uncertainty.
  • There have been somewhat mixed views of FOMC members on long end yield drivers recently. Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) on Friday said long-term yields reflected increased growth expectation and weren’t driven by inflation expectations as well, although Gov. Bowman (permanent voter, hawk) on Thursday saw higher inflation expectations at least in part attributing to moves. Barkin (non-voter) meanwhile last week said he saw term premium as a factor. 

 

Williams’ other comments focused on balance sheet policy, with the main takeaway being that reserves are still seen as being above "ample": 

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  • Speaking in a media scrum after an earlier appearance, NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) said Treasury yields haven’t been driven by inflation expectations and that yields instead reflect economic strength and fiscal uncertainty.
  • There have been somewhat mixed views of FOMC members on long end yield drivers recently. Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) on Friday said long-term yields reflected increased growth expectation and weren’t driven by inflation expectations as well, although Gov. Bowman (permanent voter, hawk) on Thursday saw higher inflation expectations at least in part attributing to moves. Barkin (non-voter) meanwhile last week said he saw term premium as a factor. 

 

Williams’ other comments focused on balance sheet policy, with the main takeaway being that reserves are still seen as being above "ample": 

Keep reading...Show less