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Winter Spot LNG Demand May Fall from Last Year in China: Sinopec

LNG

China’s demand for spot winter LNG cargoes may fall from last year, as alternative supplies keep the market “generally in balance” according to Sinopec Economic and Development Research Institute.

  • China’s 2H gas demand may rise 8% y/y to 19bcm but will be capped by milder winter expected under El Nino, ample coal supplies and industry sensitivity to cost increases amid an economic slowdown.
  • Demand in 3Q demand is expected to be up +8.5% y/y to 87.5bcm and in 4Q demand seen between +6.8% to +8.9% y/y depending on the weather driven household heating requirements.
  • Spot LNG demand to be curbed by more long-term contracts, Russian pipeline imports and rising domestic output while Central Asian pipeline disruptions are a risk to supply.
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