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Won Enjoys Positive Spill Over From Yen Surge, Trade Data On Tap

KRW

1 month USD/KRW stabilized post the Asia close, although remained close to session lows. We ended the NY session just above 1284, after getting close to 1280 in early London trading. The pair is still around lows last seen in June of this year. The won outperformed higher beta FX within the region and in the G10 space (AUD, NZD etc), as the currency benefited from the surge in JPY post the BoJ.

  • Given South Korea and Japan's export baskets are somewhat aligned, weaker USD/JPY levels are seen as having some spill over to the Korean currency from a competitive standpoint.
  • Today the data calendar is focused on the first 20-days trade data for December. There is no consensus estimate, but the last print for exports was -16.7%, while the trade deficit was close to -$4.5bn.
  • Late yesterday, Taiwan export orders faltered in November, coming in at -23.4% y/y, versus -12.8% forecast.
  • For the Kospi, tech related indices underperformed somewhat during US trade, but the tone to US futures is more positive since the open. To recap, the Kospi fell 0.80% yesterday, while offshore investors sold -$128.4mn of local shares.
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