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Won Lags Higher Beta FX, Inflation Expectations Higher, Feb 1-20 Trade Data On Tap

KRW

1 month USD/KRW didn't see fresh downside post the Asia close, leaving the won slightly underperforming the other higher beta FX plays. The pair finished NY around the 1295.00/50 region, although with US markets out, liquidity was no doubt lighter. Note onshore spot ended yesterday at 1294.55.

  • We have already had Feb consumer confidence print, edging down to 90.2 from 90.7 in Jan. The series has been broadly trending sideways since the middle part of last year.
  • Inflation expectations for the next 12 months edged back higher to 4.0%, versus 3.9% prior and the second straight monthly rise. The chart below overlays headline CPI versus this expectations measure.
  • This suggests we may see still firm inflation outcomes persist in the near term, although headline CPI generally led moves in expectations through 2021 and 2022. This data comes ahead of Thursday's BoK decision, where no change is expected.
  • A little later on, the first 20-days trade data for Feb will be out. BoK Governor Rhee will also attend a parliament session at 2pm local time.

Fig 1: South Korean Inflation Expectations Edging Back Higher

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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