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Wood Mackenzie See Soft Diesel Fundamentals in NW Europe

DIESEL

Current and forecast diesel balances in NW Europe show the “softest fundamentals since the start of the war in Ukraine,” according to Wood Mackenzie.

  • They expect gasoil/diesel crack spreads to remain weak during 2Q 2023. Returning French refineries are expected to add almost 330kb/d of CDU capacity to NW Europe in April. This equates to about 125kb/d of extra regional diesel supply.
  • High imports due into NW Europe will aid a recovery in inventories as France look to rebuild commercial inventories to near pre-strike levels.
  • Their gasoil/diesel stockpile forecasts for Northwest Europe could be revised higher in the next update.
  • The European gasoil crack is down at the lowest since early March 2022 at just 16.6$/bbl.
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -0.4$/bbl at 16.62$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.6$/bbl at 29.56$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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