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Working Up to Midweek CPI

US TSYS
Tsys trading steady to weaker for the most part, off early London lows, bonds outperforming. Tsy 10Y yield climbed to 1.8064%H, 1.7709% last; 30YY 2.1483%H, 2.1240% last.
  • No Fed speakers on tap (next policy blackout starts Midnight Fri through Jan 27), only second tier data on tap (Wholesale Trade Sales/Inventories).
  • More focus on midweek CPI (0.4% vs. 0.8% prior). Morgan Stanley economists posit CPI inflation "has broadly been tracking in line with our expectations, though PCE inflation has come in somewhat higher." MS raises their forecast for "core PCE inflation in 2021 by 60bp to 4.5% 4Q/4Q, while we see core PCE inflation running at 2.4% in 4Q 2022, and 2.0% in 4Q 2023."
  • Decent pre-open volumes (considering Japan extended weekend/holiday) TYH2 over 400k already. Nevertheless, desks reported better deal-tied and leveraged acct selling in intermediates to long end from Asian accts.
  • Tsy bounce in-line with EGB move off lows. Sovereign spds forging wider (Turkey +15.7, Russia +8.7 and Hungary +3.2 vs. 10Y Bunds).
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