World Bank Warns Growth Reforms Needed, Global IP Weakens

The World Bank continues to expect 2023 global growth to slow to 1.7% but in a new report it warns that long-term growth could fall to a 2.2% average over 2022-2030, a three-decade low, and emerging markets to 4% from 6% 2000-2010. The World Bank recommends reforms that boost investment in capital and people, working hours and technology use that increases productivity. January CPB global data show that trade and growth trends remained weak at the start of 2023.

• World Bank chief economist Gill said “A lost decade could be in the making for the global economy. The ongoing decline in potential growth has serious implications for the world’s ability to tackle the expanding array of challenges unique to our times. Co-author Ohnsorge noted “Recessions tend to lower potential growth. Systemic banking crises do greater immediate harm than recessions, but their impact tends to ease over time.”See “Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects: Trends, Expectations, and Policies here.
• CPB’s global trade fell 0.1% m/m in January but exports rose 0.8% after slumping 3.3%. But 3-month annualised export momentum deteriorated to -10.5%, which signals further softening. The weakness continues to be in emerging market exports which have negative momentum and are still down 4.1% y/y with China only stabilising at -10.9%.
• Global IP was flat on the month to be down 1.1% y/y and 3-month momentum deteriorated to -3.9%. But the global PMI rose in January and February, and the Baltic Freight index has stabilised, which suggest that output growth may be close to a trough, however LME metals prices fell in February and March.
• Global export prices fell 0.2% m/m while import prices rose 0.7% but generally pressures from traded prices have eased significantly from H1 2022, which is good news for central banks. Energy prices are now down 6% y/y and raw materials -12.6%.

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CPB/Bloomberg

Exports y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/CPB