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Wrightson ICAP: Sequential Core CPI To Remain Elevated

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Wrightson ICAP sees April core CPI picking up to 0.4% M/M vs 0.3% in March, with the "underlying sequential growth rate" remaining "far above the Fed's tolerance range". Headline is seen at +0.2% M/M.

  • Those estimates are in line with consensus.
  • They see "continued volatility" in many categories including large gains in auto rental/insurance, airfares, and lodging outweighing declines elsewhere (namely used vehicles). The main question is whether shelter costs accelerate again.
  • Their assumptions put core PCE gains at 0.4%, pending both today's release and Thursday's PPI report.

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