Wrightson ICAP: Hiring "Struggle" To Be Seen In Aug Payrolls

Wrightson ICAP is at the pessimistic end of nonfarm payroll expectations, looking for +500k. They cite two main reasons:

• One is the absence of positive seasonal adjustment factors for government payrolls which boosted June and July's figures (actual payrolls in gov't fell by 1.2mn but that translated to a seas adj increase as the drop was smaller than usual). "We anticipated large gains in public payrolls in the past two reports, and we think there is an equally strong technical argument for expecting them to be flat in August."
• The second is the "struggle" for employers to find additional workers, with a private payroll estimate of +500k. But they " look for sizable ongoing gains in the fall as school reopenings and the end of emergency unemployment benefits pull more people back into the labor force, and would not view a gain of "only" 500K this month as a sign that labor demand was losing momentum."
• Wrightson ICAP expects a number in line with the consensus to "improve the odds that the Fed will release a relatively concrete [taper] plan" in September.