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Wrightson ICAP: Shelter Prices Remained Sticky In June

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Wrightson ICAP is looking for a +0.5% reading in June core CPI (in line with consensus), with headline +1.0% (a touch below 1.1% consensus).

  • They see a deceleration concentrated in some categories "that have been volatile in the post-pandemic era" (e.g. airfares and used cars, which they expect to rise again in June, but by less than in May).
  • Shelter will prove stickier: they see OER at +0.55% M/M, down slightly from May's +0.6% but well above the prior 3 month average of 0.45%.
  • They early read on PCE based on this CPI forecast is +0.4% core (+4.7% Y/Y) and +0.7% headline (+6.6% Y/Y), but they note that much will depend on the PPI report with a number of PCE components from that source data have been volatile.
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