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WTI Buoyed By US Stocks Draw, Gold By Geopol Tensions

COMMODITIES
  • Crude is holding most of its strong gains today seen from boosted demand forecasts, larger US stock draws, and widening geopolitical risks.
  • EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Jan 12: Crude stocks -2,492 vs Exp -426, Crude production +100, SPR stocks +596, Cushing stocks -2,099
  • North Dakota oil production is down today ~500-550 MBOPD due to the recent extreme cold and related operations, based on MNI correspondence with the pipeline authority.
  • The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 has been revised higher by 180kbpd to 1.2mbpd to reach almost 103mbpd, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Market Report.
  • WTI is +2.2% at $74.12, off a high of $74.38 that just about cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA ($74.29) to open the bull trigger at $76.18 (Dec 26 high).
  • Brent is +1.6% at $79.16 off a high of $79.30 which stopped short of resistance at $80.75 (Jan 12 high) and with the bull trigger higher still at $81.45 (Dec 26 high).
  • Gold is +0.7% at $2019.5, unwinding a large part of yesterday’s second half slide despite net USD strength, instead buoyed by geopolitical tension including further US strikes on Houthi targets and Pakistan striking Iran in retaliation. Recent clearance of support including the 50-day EMA have strengthened the bearish threat with $1973.2 (Dec 13 low) exposed.
Energy BulletsCommodities
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