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AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude is set for a net weekly gain following a weaker dollar

AMERICAS OIL
USEnergy BulletsNorth AmericaBulletCommodities

WTI crude is set for a net weekly gain following a weaker dollar, delays to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and supported by signs of tightening supply due to sanctions on Russia. Bessent’s comments that the US could sanction Russian energy further and that the US wants to cut Iranian oil exports also supportive.

  • Signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions and ‘imminent’ Ukraine peace talks had caused prices to pull back from a peak mid-week.
  • President Trump signed a measure proposing tariffs on numerous trading partners, assessing tariffs on a country by country basis. Reciprocal tariffs will not go into effect today and are delayed until April 1, CNBC reports.
  • Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
  • 94 of the 154 active tankers sanctioned by the US on Jan. 10 are now idle, Bloomberg reports.
  • IEA projected a narrowing oil surplus with a modest revision in global oil demand growth up to average 1.1 mb/d in 2025, up from 870 kb/d in 2024 and with reduced output forecasts for Russia and Iran given US sanctions.
  • US diesel cracks have followed the crude market moves this week to continue a trend higher since late January while gasoline cracks have remained rangebound through the week.
  • India seeks to boost US oil & gas imports after Trump-Modi meeting yesterday, in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs.
  • Mexican oil imports fell to their lowest monthly level on record in January, averaging just 535 kb/d, a decline of 400 kb/d m/m according to Kpler vessel tracking.
  • Trump’s tariff reversal supporting Canadian crudes with WCS trading at a discount of $13.9/bbl to WTI since tariffs were delayed, a slight improvement from $14.9/bbl the previous week. Mexican crude diffs were also supported with Maya diffs to WTI Houston improved by 50 cents/bbl to a discount of $7.72/bbl.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he wants to cut Iranian oil exports to 100 kb/d and, if Trump directs, he will further sanction Russian energy.
    • WTI MAR 25 up 0.6% at 71.72$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 17.12$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 31.95$/bbl
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WTI crude is set for a net weekly gain following a weaker dollar, delays to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and supported by signs of tightening supply due to sanctions on Russia. Bessent’s comments that the US could sanction Russian energy further and that the US wants to cut Iranian oil exports also supportive.

  • Signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions and ‘imminent’ Ukraine peace talks had caused prices to pull back from a peak mid-week.
  • President Trump signed a measure proposing tariffs on numerous trading partners, assessing tariffs on a country by country basis. Reciprocal tariffs will not go into effect today and are delayed until April 1, CNBC reports.
  • Floating Russian and Iranian barrels have hit multi-month highs on harsher U.S. sanctions as buyers fear pulling in cargoes.
  • 94 of the 154 active tankers sanctioned by the US on Jan. 10 are now idle, Bloomberg reports.
  • IEA projected a narrowing oil surplus with a modest revision in global oil demand growth up to average 1.1 mb/d in 2025, up from 870 kb/d in 2024 and with reduced output forecasts for Russia and Iran given US sanctions.
  • US diesel cracks have followed the crude market moves this week to continue a trend higher since late January while gasoline cracks have remained rangebound through the week.
  • India seeks to boost US oil & gas imports after Trump-Modi meeting yesterday, in order to reduce the trade imbalance and avoid retaliatory tariffs.
  • Mexican oil imports fell to their lowest monthly level on record in January, averaging just 535 kb/d, a decline of 400 kb/d m/m according to Kpler vessel tracking.
  • Trump’s tariff reversal supporting Canadian crudes with WCS trading at a discount of $13.9/bbl to WTI since tariffs were delayed, a slight improvement from $14.9/bbl the previous week. Mexican crude diffs were also supported with Maya diffs to WTI Houston improved by 50 cents/bbl to a discount of $7.72/bbl.
  • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he wants to cut Iranian oil exports to 100 kb/d and, if Trump directs, he will further sanction Russian energy.
    • WTI MAR 25 up 0.6% at 71.72$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.2$/bbl at 17.12$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 31.95$/bbl