WTI Heads for New 6-Month Low

Crude prices are heading for six-month low levels amid signs of further bolstered US production and continued scepticism towards OPEC+ output cuts. Wider economic concerns that interest rates may stay elevated for longer is also weighing on prices.

• WTI JAN 24 down -4.1% at 68.4$/bbl
• WTI-Brent up 0.05$/bbl at -4.39$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24-FEB 24 down -0.04$/bbl at -0.28$/bbl
• WTI FEB 24-MAR 24 down -0.07$/bbl at -0.27$/bbl
• Intermonth spreads also continue to indicate the market may be looking at oversupply.
• US crude production in 2023 was revised up by 30k b/d to 12.93m b/d in the most recent EIA Short Term Energy Outlook released Dec. 12. Although, production for 2024 was revised down 0.3% to 13.11m b/d.
• Meanwhile, the weekly average of Russia’s seaborne exports hit its highest level in five months, shipping 3.2m b/d of crude.
• Whether Russia is meeting its current OPEC pledge of a 300k b/d cut has been complicated by it subsequently announcing that the cut would apply across crude and products.
• US Core CPI came in very much as expected in November at 0.285% M/M but Supercore (core services ex OER & rents) was slightly on the higher side at 0.44% M/M.