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WTI Sees Drop On Hostage Release, Gold Still Gains

COMMODITIES
  • Crude futures saw a sharp intraday decline to offset earlier as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East sparks huge volatility. The fall followed reports that Hamas has released two US hostages following mediation with Qatar. Despite the drop, WTI remains up around 1% since the start of the week.
  • US total rig count increased by 2 on the week to 624, according to Baker Hughes
  • Venezuela has released five prisoners, including a well-known opposition figure as part of Washington's demand that certain prisoners be freed this week in return for temporarily eased sanctions on its oil & gas sector.
  • JP Morgan does not expect Middle East instability to result in a long-term oil price spike according to a recent research note.
  • WTI is -0.7% at $88.75, with resistance seen at $98.58 (76.4% retrace Sep 28 – Oct 6 bear leg) and support at $83.90 (50-day EMA).
  • Brent is -0.1% at $92.28 off a high of $93.48, with resistance seen at a bull trigger of $95.35 (Sep 28 high) and support at $87.91 (50-day EMA).
  • Gold is +0.4% at $1981.89 off a high of $1996.99 but still holding its clearance of resistance at $1982.4 (Jul 20 high) as geopolitical tensions remain high despite the hostage release. Next resistance is seen at $2003.4 (76.4% retrace of May 4 – Oct 6 bear leg).
  • Weekly moves: WTI +1.2%, Brent +1.5%, Gold +2.5%, US nat gas -9.6%, EU TTF nat gas -5.3%

Gold surge continuesSource: Bloomberg

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