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WTI Struggling for Direction

COMMODITIES
  • WTI has oscillated between small gains and losses during Thursday’s session, as oil struggles for direction following yesterday's climbdown. Crude relinquished some of its geopolitical risk premium due to lower concerns for Middle East supply.
  • Israel is unlikely to carry out a strike on Iran until after Passover, according to ABC citing a senior US official.
  • WTI May 24 is currently broadly unchanged on the day at $82.7/bbl.
  • A bull theme in WTI futures remains intact, although yesterday’s move lower signals the start of a short-term bearish corrective cycle.
  • The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at $81.12. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal a stronger bearish theme. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $87.67, the Apr 12 high.
  • Spot gold rose by 0.9% to $2,381/oz on Thursday, keeping it around 2% below its record high reached last Friday.
  • The trend condition remains unchanged and the outlook is still bullish, with the next objective at $2452.5, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at $2293.4, the 20-day EMA.
  • Copper also rose by another 2.1% today to $445.5/lb, its highest since early June 2022, helping the Chilean peso to outperform.
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