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WTO Revises Up Trade Outlook But Downside Risks Persist

GLOBAL

The WTO has revised up its forecast for global trade growth in 2023 to 1.7% from 1% in October driven by higher expected GDP growth due to China’s reopening. It rose 2.7% last year but was weaker than the 3.5% expected. It is projected to be back above its 12-year average in 2024 at 3.2%, but risks are skewed to the downside.

  • Trade is expected to be lacklustre this year due to the effects of the war in the Ukraine, continued high inflation, higher rates and financial market uncertainty. It is likely to ease across most regions, except Asia and the former Soviet Union. Asian export growth in 2023 is expected to improve to 2.5% from 0.6%, and then 4.7% in 2024.
  • The WTO expects GDP growth to ease to 2.4% this year after 3% in 2022 and to be slightly stronger in 2024 at 2.6%. Only Asia is forecast to see a pick-up in growth in 2023, driven by the reopening of China. The WTO forecasts it at 4.2% from 3.3% last year.
  • See press release here.
Global trade outlook %

Source: MNI - Market News/CPB/WTO/IMF/World Bank

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