XpertHR Pay Deals Signals Wage Growth Plateauing at 6%

The UK XpertHR Pay Awards survey found median basic pay deals in the private sector held steady at 6% in the three months to April, unchanged for a third-straight rolling quarter.

• April is closely watched in pay settlements as the month where employers set the basis for the upcoming financial year.
• The UK labour market remains historically tight, yet has indicated pressures are loosening over recent months, as April RTI payrolls surprised to the downside and vacancies in the quarter to April down a 10th consecutive month to a the lowest since Jun-Aug 2021.
• This morning's May flash PMI underscored these risks, highlighting that robust demand in the services sector in conjunction with tight labour supply is fuelling higher wages and spilling over into higher prices charged.
• Whilst the XpertHR report implies that wage pressures are no longer intensifying, it doesn't point to significant early easing, putting it in line with the BOE's MPC who noted in the May MPR "there continued to be a risk that pay growth could plateau at rates above those consistent with meeting the 2% inflation target sustainably in the medium term".
• In March, XpertHR's Sheila Attwood told MNI that their forecasts indicated that "pay awards may have reached their peak and will settle throughout the course of the year".