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Year-End ZEW Survey Expectations Worsen

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY ZEW JUL EXPECTATIONS -14.7 (FCST -10.6); JUN -8.5

GERMANY ZEW JUL CURRENT SITUATION -59.5 (FCST -62.0); JUN -56.5

  • The July ZEW survey of financial market experts highlighted mounting concerns regarding the direction of the German economy over the next six months.
  • The current conditions index declined by 3.0 points to -59.5, a less severe decrease than anticipated albeit firmly pessimistic.
  • Meanwhile, outlooks worsened by 6.2 points to -14.7, implying the weakest forward-looking index since December 2022 and more-than undoing the small moderation in outlooks recorded in June.
  • Higher short-term interest rates for the eurozone and US were flagged as the key driver of worsening expectations alongside anticipated weak global export demand.
  • "The industrial sectors are likely to bear the brunt of the anticipated economic downturn, with profit expectations for these export-oriented industries experiencing a substantial decline once again,” commented ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach. Mounting pessimism and soft PMI order books points towards a drag on Q3/Q4 GDP.

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