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JPY: Yen Lags Broader USD Softness Amid Tariff Delay, Large 156 Option Expiry

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USD/JPY fell from around 156.50 to the low 155.40 region as the US session unfolded on Monday. We stabilized sub 155.50, and track near 155.60/65 in early Tuesday dealings (yen up a little over 0.4% for Monday's session). Yen lagged USD weakness more broadly as both the BBDXY and DXY indices lost over 1.10%, with prospects of immediate tariff announcements from the new Trump administration fizzling out through Monday trade.

  • Most USD weakness was concentrated in a short window during the US session on Monday as headlines from the Wall Street Journal crossed. The WSJ detailed that President Trump was planning to issue a broad memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies to study trade policies, but stopped short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office. Trump officials later corroborated the reports.
  • Yen notably lagged the broader positive risk on tone, although US cash Tsy and equity markets were closed for Martin Luther King day on Monday. Equity futures were higher, while Tsy futures were positive. NZD/JPY rallied back above 88.30, while AUD/JPY is now back around 97.60/65, with both pairs still comfortably sub Jan highs.
  • For USD/JPY technicals, downside focus will rest with the 50-day EMA, which comes in at 154.97. The 20-day EMA is on the topside around 156.66.
  • Locally today, the data calendar is empty.
  • Note in the option expiry space the following for NY cut later today (as US markets return): USD/JPY: Y153.00($1.5bln), Y156.00-05($2.2bln). The sizable expiry around 156.00 may influence spot trends today. 
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USD/JPY fell from around 156.50 to the low 155.40 region as the US session unfolded on Monday. We stabilized sub 155.50, and track near 155.60/65 in early Tuesday dealings (yen up a little over 0.4% for Monday's session). Yen lagged USD weakness more broadly as both the BBDXY and DXY indices lost over 1.10%, with prospects of immediate tariff announcements from the new Trump administration fizzling out through Monday trade.

  • Most USD weakness was concentrated in a short window during the US session on Monday as headlines from the Wall Street Journal crossed. The WSJ detailed that President Trump was planning to issue a broad memorandum Monday that directs federal agencies to study trade policies, but stopped short of imposing new tariffs on his first day in office. Trump officials later corroborated the reports.
  • Yen notably lagged the broader positive risk on tone, although US cash Tsy and equity markets were closed for Martin Luther King day on Monday. Equity futures were higher, while Tsy futures were positive. NZD/JPY rallied back above 88.30, while AUD/JPY is now back around 97.60/65, with both pairs still comfortably sub Jan highs.
  • For USD/JPY technicals, downside focus will rest with the 50-day EMA, which comes in at 154.97. The 20-day EMA is on the topside around 156.66.
  • Locally today, the data calendar is empty.
  • Note in the option expiry space the following for NY cut later today (as US markets return): USD/JPY: Y153.00($1.5bln), Y156.00-05($2.2bln). The sizable expiry around 156.00 may influence spot trends today.