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JPY: Yen Rally Falters, But USD/JPY Bear Threat Remains, Local Mkts Shut Today

JPY
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After outperforming last week, yen gave back some ground during Monday trade. USD/JPY is currently track near 152.00 in early Tuesday dealings (having lost nearly 0.40% for Monday's session). Yen was marginally the worst performer in the G10 space with NZD next. 

  • USD/JPY briefly extended its recovery from Friday’s lows to around 150 pips, printing a 152.54 session high during the European session on Monday. Overall, this recovery for Cross/JPY appeared to be very much a correction to the broader developing theme we saw last week, and across the US session these moves did reverse.
  • The reversal in USD/JPY and some yen crosses coincided with light bid in core FI markets as US trade unfolded on Monday, although volumes were light. US-JP yield differentials sit up from recent lows, although ticked down for Monday trade, the 10yr spread last just under +320bps. The generally positive global equity tone on Monday, likely trimmed yen appetite, despite further Trump tariff pledges.
  • Technicals for USD/JPY haven't changed much, with a bearish theme still intact. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered oversold territory. We noted this point late last week, which may be driving some caution on entering fresh USD/JPY positions at the current juncture.
  • Note onshore markets are closed today for National Foundation Day. 
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After outperforming last week, yen gave back some ground during Monday trade. USD/JPY is currently track near 152.00 in early Tuesday dealings (having lost nearly 0.40% for Monday's session). Yen was marginally the worst performer in the G10 space with NZD next. 

  • USD/JPY briefly extended its recovery from Friday’s lows to around 150 pips, printing a 152.54 session high during the European session on Monday. Overall, this recovery for Cross/JPY appeared to be very much a correction to the broader developing theme we saw last week, and across the US session these moves did reverse.
  • The reversal in USD/JPY and some yen crosses coincided with light bid in core FI markets as US trade unfolded on Monday, although volumes were light. US-JP yield differentials sit up from recent lows, although ticked down for Monday trade, the 10yr spread last just under +320bps. The generally positive global equity tone on Monday, likely trimmed yen appetite, despite further Trump tariff pledges.
  • Technicals for USD/JPY haven't changed much, with a bearish theme still intact. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered oversold territory. We noted this point late last week, which may be driving some caution on entering fresh USD/JPY positions at the current juncture.
  • Note onshore markets are closed today for National Foundation Day.