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Yen Shows Limited (If Any) Reaction To Domestic Politics

JPY

Weekend news flow in Japan was heavily dominated by Japan's Upper House election, with the ruling coalition handed a resounding victory (see our earlier bullets for more details), days after ex-PM Abe was murdered on campaign trail. The result shifts focus to the ramifications of the expected consolidation of PM Kishida's grip over the Liberal Democratic Party as he looks at three years of reprieve ahead of the next electoral test.

  • U.S. Tsy Sec Yellen cancelled her planned trip to Yokohama but will still meet with her Japanese counterpart Suzuki on Tuesday. Sec of State Blinken has touched down in Tokyo to offer his condolences after ex-PM Abe's death and will hold talks with PM Kishida.
  • The yen has largely been unfazed by weekend developments, as participants parse political goings-on. The greenback tops the G10 pile at typing, driving early gains in USD/JPY.
  • Spot USD/JPY last trades at Y136.29, up 20 pips on the day. The next bullish target is provided by Jun 29 high of Y137.00, followed by the 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing at Y137.30. Conversely, initial firms support is at Y134.27, the low print of Jun 23.
  • BoJ Gov Kuroda will speak at the branch managers' meeting today, following the release of the monthly Regional Economic Report.
  • On the data front, focus turns to core machine orders (today), PPI (Tuesday) as well as final industrial output (Thursday).

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