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Yen Underperforms G10 FX, USD/JPY Close To Recent Highs

JPY

USD/JPY got close to recent cyclical highs in Monday trade post the Asia close. We printed 151.94 before seeing a modest pull back. The pair is around 151.80/85 in early Tuesday trade. For Monday's session, yen lost a modest 0.13%, only outperforming the CHF in the G10 space.

  • The general tone to G10 FX was risk on through Monday trade. Equity sentiment was positive in the EU although flat in the US, while commodity indices climbed higher.
  • This, along with fresh multi month highs in US yields helped keep USD/JPY supported. US-JP yield differentials are higher, the 10yr spread back to +362bps.
  • For USD/JPY focus will be on the 152.00 region. 151.97 marked the Mar 27 highs. Technical indicators remain in a bullish mode for the pair, while the 20-day EMA sits back at 150.83. Obviously, FX rhetoric from the authorities will be watched.
  • Locally today we have consumer confidence and machine tool orders data, but these are unlikely to shift the sentiment needle.
  • In the option expiry space, note the following for NY cut later: Y151.50($1.1bln), Y153.00-15($987mln).
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