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Yield Pressure Limits EUR/USD Gains, Focus on Tail-End of the Week

FOREX
  • The single currency is modestly the best performer, with EUR/USD narrowing in on the post-Powell highs posted on Thursday. 1.0616 marks the first upside level, a break above which opens 1.0640 and the 50-dma of 1.0684. The renewed run higher in US yields is helping limit gains in the pair. The US 10y yield is narrowing in on 5.00% again, pressure that's underpinning the USD index and limited losses toward recent lows of 105.975.
  • High beta, growth-tied currencies are the poorest performers, suffering alongside equities to prompt EURSEK and USDSEK to both trade around 0.4% higher on the day, while NOK pairs are around 0.3% higher. EURNOK approaches the Jul 6 high at 11.7770 while EURSEK eyes the 50-day EMA at 11.6906 (having breached the 100-day EMA at 11.6584 already).
  • Focus remains on USD/JPY's ability to sustain gains north of Y150.00. Upon resumption of trade after the weekend, USD/JPY surged to briefly print Y150.11 - but gains were limited and swiftly reversed back below the handle. The price action reinforces the cautious nature that markets have adopted to the Japanese authorities' ability to limit gains in the pair.
  • The quiet Monday docket should keep the focus on geopolitical risks - the conflict in Israel remains a key focus, with the Israeli military making limited incursions into the Gaza Strip in attempts to secure hostages and cut off Hamas operatives from access to aid. Datapoints pick up from tomorrow, with global PMI numbers crossing ahead of the ECB decision and advance Q3 GDP data on Thursday.
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