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Pullback Considered Corrective


Holding Above Recent Lows


BLOCK, Large 3Y Midcurve Put Condor

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The rebound in Tsy yields from Tuesday's mid-morning lows continues, alongside a rebound in equities.

  • Price action (and actionable headlines) proved limited in the Asia-Pac session, with weakness concentrated in about 2 hours of early London trade as stocks picked up the pace.
  • Curve is bear steepening: the 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.2017%, 5-Yr is up 1bps at 0.6945%, 10-Yr is up 1.8bps at 1.24%, and 30-Yr is up 3.2bps at 1.9087%.
  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) down 6.5/32 at 134-15 (L: 134-10.5 / H: 134-26.5). Good volumes once again: ~485k traded (as of 0630ET).
  • Supply in focus with $24B 20Y Bond re-open at 1300ET (also $30B 119-day bills at 1130ET). NY Fed buys ~$8.425B of 2.25-4.5Y Tsys.
  • A bare data slate (weekly MBA mortgage apps at 0700ET) and of course no Fed speakers.
  • Note, Senate set to take a procedural vote on whether to proceed with debate on bipartisan infra bill at 1430ET - but this is set to fail, with both sides still wrangling over text.
  • A couple of overnight D.C. items worth noting: a broad WSJ survey piece noting that Powell's re-appointment as Fed Chair was likely but not certain. Also Senate Min Leader McConnell told Punchbowl News that he thinks no Republicans will be willing to vote to raise the debt limit (so Dems might have to go it alone, perhaps attached to a reconciliation bill).