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Yields Climb Post ECB, Powell

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars yield increases are led by EDM3-Z3 up 7bps since just prior to the initial ECB rate decision for 4bps higher on the day.
  • The bulk of the swing came from the ECB including through the statement but Powell has helped by doing nothing to push back against 75bp market pricing just prior to the FOMC blackout (currently 72bps).
  • It does relatively little to change the shape of the curve: yesterday’s development of ED yields peaking in EDZ2-EDH3 (prior just EDH3) still holds, currently 4.165%, with little change on the day for EDZ2/EDZ3 at -0.42 and still a faster pace of cuts seen into 2024 with EDZ3/EDZ4 -0.50.

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