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Yields Firm At the Front End Following US Lead, Retail Sales Fall Doesn't Impact

NEW ZEALAND

NZGB yields are holding higher in the first part of Friday trade. Moves are being led by the front end, which is consistent with US yield moves from Thursday trade, where the 2yr rose nearly 5bps to 4.71%. Better initial jobless claims data helped, along with the Fed's Harker warning against cutting rates too soon.

  • The NZ 2yr is around 1.4bps higher, last near 4.93%. The 10yr around 0.5bps higher, last near 4.78%.
  • In the swap space, we are generally firmer in yield terms as well. The 2yr +5bps to 5.17%, which is very close to mid Feb highs. The 10yr swap rate is seeing a more muted session so far, steady around 4.615%.
  • There hasn't been reaction to the weaker than expected NZ retail sales volume data for Q4. In q/q terms we fell 1.9%, against a -0.2% forecast. Q3 was also revised lwoer to -0.8% (versus an initial flat outcome). In y/y terms we are down -4.1%.
  • This comes ahead of next Wednesday's RBNZ meeting. Market pricing (OIS based) looks at around 30% priced for a 25bps hike.
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