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Yields Higher Ahead Jackson Hole Economic Summit, Chair Powell Friday

US TSYS
  • Treasuries finished weaker/near lows Thursday after steady to mixed data and cautious comments from Fed’s Schmid. The Fed could be approaching the time to reduce interest rates but it must make sure inflation is coming down sustainably to its 2% target, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said Thursday.
  • “We’ve got some data sets to come in before September, I want to be thoughtful about it,” Schmid told CNBC in an interview. “I’m taking a harder look at, I’m going to let the data show where we lead.”
  • Fast two-way trade as Treasury futures initially rebound then extend lows after weekly claims data came out in line with expectations, continuing claims a little lower than anticipated with a modest down-revision to the prior.
  • Treasury futures gap lower/extend lows after mixed flash PMI figures -- Mfg lower than expected vs. higher than expected Services and Composite. Manufacturing surprises lower at 48.0 (cons 49.5) after 49.6 whilst services surprised higher with a mild increase to 55.2 (cons 54.0) after 54.3. The beat for services, with its much larger weight, would ordinarily drive the market reaction but there was softness in some key areas within the report.
  • Focus turns to the KC Fed hosted Jackson Hole economic symposium "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," will be held Aug. 22-24, Fed Chairman Powell speaking 1000ET Friday morning.
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