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US TSYS: Yields Slip to 10D Lows Into Year End, Early Cash Close

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries added to Monday's rally overnight -- back near December 20 levels before drawing some sell interest in early London trade. Average to small year-end duration extensions: US +0.07Y, EU: +0.04Y, UK -.02Y (Bbg).
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 109-03 last (+4) vs. -06 high on modest year end volume of just over 135k. Tsy 10Y yield tapped 4.5027% low overnight, curves are looking modestly flatter: 2s10s .966 at 28.317, 5s30s -1.864 at 37.011.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -21.3bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.8bp (-28.8bp).
  • Today's economic data (prior, est) limited to FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, followed by Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
  • Reminder: early cash Tsy close at 1400ET, futures at normal time of 1600ET.
  • For next week: the NYSE Group markets will close on January 9 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President Carter (New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American Equities, NYSE American Options, NYSE Arca Equities, NYSE Arca Options, NYSE Chicago and NYSE National), while the CME Group has opted for early close, link HERE. FI open outcry will close at 1300ET, GLOBEX shortly after at 1315ET next Thursday.
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  • Treasuries added to Monday's rally overnight -- back near December 20 levels before drawing some sell interest in early London trade. Average to small year-end duration extensions: US +0.07Y, EU: +0.04Y, UK -.02Y (Bbg).
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 109-03 last (+4) vs. -06 high on modest year end volume of just over 135k. Tsy 10Y yield tapped 4.5027% low overnight, curves are looking modestly flatter: 2s10s .966 at 28.317, 5s30s -1.864 at 37.011.
  • Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -21.3bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.8bp (-28.8bp).
  • Today's economic data (prior, est) limited to FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, followed by Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
  • Reminder: early cash Tsy close at 1400ET, futures at normal time of 1600ET.
  • For next week: the NYSE Group markets will close on January 9 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President Carter (New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American Equities, NYSE American Options, NYSE Arca Equities, NYSE Arca Options, NYSE Chicago and NYSE National), while the CME Group has opted for early close, link HERE. FI open outcry will close at 1300ET, GLOBEX shortly after at 1315ET next Thursday.