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Ylds Continue to Extend Cycle Highs Into the Close

Tsy futures gradually extended session lows since briefly extended early session highs post-data: weekly claims -12k to 214k, continuing claims +.021M to 1.385M, Pilly Fed Mfg index little weaker than expected at -8.7.
  • U.S. existing home sales fell for an eighth straight month in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million, 1.5% lower than the previous month and down 24% compared to 2021 and a ten-year low as mortgage rates climbed, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.
  • Decent total volumes on the day (TYZ2>1.4M), Yield curves bear steepening (2s10s +4.315 at -38.606) as yields continue to extend cycle highs (10YY 4.2304%).
  • Modest tail for US Tsy $21B 5Y TIPS auction (91282CFR7): 1.732% high yield vs. 1.725% WI.
  • Eurodollar futures remain under heavy pressure, Reds through Golds (EDZ3-EDU7) -0.135-0.150 as markets price in two more 75bp hikes by year end, at least another 50bp to kick off 2023 w/ Fed terminal rate just over 5%.
  • Reminder, Fed enters media blackout midnight Friday - yet only NY Fed Williams making open remarks at a careers event at 0910ET is scheduled.

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