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Yuan Slipping Again

CNH

The PBOC fixed USD/CNY at 6.5416, 3 pips below sell side estimates. The fourth stronger yuan fix in the past five sessions that comes amid a slide in the yuan.

  • Offshore yuan is weaker. USD/CNH has moved in a range, last up 32 pips at 6.5432, off session highs at 6.5465. The pair is now above its 100-day moving average for the first time June. Options are starting to indicate a more bearish trajectory for CNH, USD/CNH 1-month risk reversals are near the highest since December at 0.6550.
  • Fig.1: USD/CNH 1-Month 25 Delta Risk Reversals

Source: MNI/Bloomberg


  • Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer between China and the international community. Over the weekend US Trade Representative Tai says the US isn't ready to lift tariffs on Chinese imports soon. While a spokesman for the regional government of Xinjiang said the US, the EU and Canada have engaged in political manipulation to destabilise China, and has rejected accusations of genocide being committed in the western Chinese region and the sanctions imposed. Elsewhere, Australia's Trade Minister Tehan threatened to take China to the WTO over the weekend due to China's decisions to increase tariffs on Australian wine.
  • Data released over the weekend showed China's industrial profits rose179% Y/Y in the first two months of 2021, the manufacturing industry saw a 220% Y/Y surge in profit. The data has been aggregated for the first two months in order to soothe LNY distortions. As well a low base effect, the strong rise is attributed to strong industrial production, a rise in sales and higher commodity prices.

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