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Free AccessZAR On the Front Foot as Potential RET Breakaway Simmers in the Background
- USD/ZAR trading slightly higher at the open, given a little bounce in the greenback after seeing sustained weakness in yesterday's session.
- We failed to hold below 14.20 this morning, but ZAR fundamentals still looking very good at this juncture for a hunt for yield on more positive Risk sentiment.
- Magashule's potential expulsion and inevitable suspension brings forward the spectre of an RET breakway from the ANC in the coming months – which is another unequivocally ZAR positive scenario as the ANC becomes unencumbered by disruptive members.
- A distinct lack of support may force Magashule to trigger this split as he will be left with nothing more to hold onto within the ANC as the ranks close – this narrative may begin to gain more traction going forward.
- Moody's rating review is expected to highlight wage negotiations and Eskom-related tail risks, but wait for the year to close out before initiating any ratings adjustments.
- A close below the 14.1484 bear trigger opens up the next down leg towards 13.9326 (Dec 2019 low) as we eye US NFPs today.
- Intraday Sup1: 14.1879, Sup2: 14.1484, Res1: 14.2777, Res3: 14.3398
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.