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ZAR On the Front Foot as Potential RET Breakaway Simmers in the Background

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trading slightly higher at the open, given a little bounce in the greenback after seeing sustained weakness in yesterday's session.
  • We failed to hold below 14.20 this morning, but ZAR fundamentals still looking very good at this juncture for a hunt for yield on more positive Risk sentiment.
  • Magashule's potential expulsion and inevitable suspension brings forward the spectre of an RET breakway from the ANC in the coming months – which is another unequivocally ZAR positive scenario as the ANC becomes unencumbered by disruptive members.
  • A distinct lack of support may force Magashule to trigger this split as he will be left with nothing more to hold onto within the ANC as the ranks close – this narrative may begin to gain more traction going forward.
  • Moody's rating review is expected to highlight wage negotiations and Eskom-related tail risks, but wait for the year to close out before initiating any ratings adjustments.
  • A close below the 14.1484 bear trigger opens up the next down leg towards 13.9326 (Dec 2019 low) as we eye US NFPs today.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.1879, Sup2: 14.1484, Res1: 14.2777, Res3: 14.3398
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News

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