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ZAR: Rand Rally Pauses, Focus On Thursday's SARB Decision

ZAR
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Spot USD/ZAR trades at 17.6254, happy to oscillate within close proximity to neutral levels after a sharp four-day sell-off, as Aug 30 low of 17.5965 has proven itself effective in constraining price action. A clean break here would allow bears to mount an attack on Jul 28, 2023 low of 17.5713 and Jul 27, 2023 low of 17.4193. On the flip side, the focus is on the 50-EMA at 18.0043.

  • SAGB yields have ticked lower across the curve, while South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates last sit at 4.28% and 5.31% respectively, hitting new cyclical lows. As a reminder, the National Treasury holds a regular bond auction today.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has added 0.2% this morning; the precious metals subindex is marginally firmer around multi-year highs.
  • Statistics SA will report August CPI tomorrow, the last piece of data before Thursday's SARB monetary policy decision, which is expected to be a 25bp rate cut.
  • The Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday may also be factored into the SARB's deliberations, which is why it will be closely watched tomorrow evening.
  • In the meantime, the Bureau for Economic Research will publish the results of its Q3 Consumer Confidence Survey at the top of the hour.
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Spot USD/ZAR trades at 17.6254, happy to oscillate within close proximity to neutral levels after a sharp four-day sell-off, as Aug 30 low of 17.5965 has proven itself effective in constraining price action. A clean break here would allow bears to mount an attack on Jul 28, 2023 low of 17.5713 and Jul 27, 2023 low of 17.4193. On the flip side, the focus is on the 50-EMA at 18.0043.

  • SAGB yields have ticked lower across the curve, while South Africa's 5-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates last sit at 4.28% and 5.31% respectively, hitting new cyclical lows. As a reminder, the National Treasury holds a regular bond auction today.
  • The composite BBG Commodity Index has added 0.2% this morning; the precious metals subindex is marginally firmer around multi-year highs.
  • Statistics SA will report August CPI tomorrow, the last piece of data before Thursday's SARB monetary policy decision, which is expected to be a 25bp rate cut.
  • The Fed's monetary policy decision on Wednesday may also be factored into the SARB's deliberations, which is why it will be closely watched tomorrow evening.
  • In the meantime, the Bureau for Economic Research will publish the results of its Q3 Consumer Confidence Survey at the top of the hour.