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ZAR Stabilises, TRY Not so Lucky

EM FX
  • ZAR generally favoured amid light EM newsflow Monday morning, helping USD/ZAR keep the Friday post-Payrolls lows under pressure at 19.4043. Weakness through that mark opens the potential for the post-SARB gap at 19.3382 last traded on May25.
  • The calmer load-shedding schedule this week (peaks at stage 4 overnight this week) and the seemingly lesser threat of US reactions to a potential weapons shipment to Russia last year (Biden admin said to be "furious" with the SA ambassador that made the original claim) has helped put a floor under ZAR pessimism for now, countering the oil uptick since last week and suggesting that a moderation in energy prices could lead to further local ZAR strength.
  • TRY is at the other end of the table, with the TRY sell-off accelerating Monday and tilting USD/TRY to 21.1817. Notably the pair now sits above the unofficial Grand Bazaar rate for the first time since 2022.
  • Moves follow confirmation of a more orthodox economy minister - and could suggest we see less official intervention in exchange rates going forward and a slower drawdown of FX reserves.
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