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ZAR: USDZAR Trading Near 19.00 as ANC Leaders Discuss Coalition Options

ZAR
  • USDZAR is trading near 19.00, up 0.3% on the session as markets await the outcome of the ANC’s coalition talks. The rand had been outperforming its EMEA peers earlier today after data showed South Africa’s current account deficit was narrower-than-expected in Q1.
  • According to the ANC’s Secretary General, President Ramaphosa will announce the composition of the new government during a press conference at around 18:00/19:00SAST.
  • The increasingly-stark choice for the ANC seems to be coming down to a coalition with the DA (and likely the IFP) that would calm markets but risk a backlash from the left of the ANC, or a government with the EFF and/or MK that would risk a run on South African assets and potentially see Ramaphosa ousted as president.
  • For USDZAR, the strong rally over the past week has confirmed a reversal of the bear leg. The pair traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for an extension higher towards 19.0659, a retracement point. Initial support to watch lies at 18.4946, the Jun 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a possible short-term bearish reversal.
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