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ZEW Survey Sees Conditions Worsen as Energy Concerns Mount

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY SEP ZEW CURRENT CONDITIONS -60.5 (FCST -52.1); AUG -47.6

GERMANY SEP ZEW EXPECTATIONS -61.9 (FCST -59.5); AUG -55.3

  • Another substantial fall was recorded by the ZEW survey of German economic conditions, with the assessment of current conditions dropping 12.9 points to near March 2021 lows and outlooks at at -61.9, nearing the 2008 low.
  • Both indexes fell further than consensus expectations again.
  • Anticipated energy shortages ahead of Winter were a key downwards driver for German industry outlooks, worsened by pessimistic outlooks regarding growth in China.
  • Headline inflation has remained elevated at 7.3-7.9% since March, with little sign of easing through year-end.
  • Yesterday's ifo economic forecast for Autumn sees inflation choking private consumption ahead of a contractive winter. Today's data is again uncomfortable reading for the ECB, which appears to be hiking into a recession.


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