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ZEW Survey Sees Economic Confidence Collapse

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

GERMANY JULY ZEW CURRENT SITUATION -45.8 (FCST -34.5); JUN -27.6

GERMANY JULY ZEW EXPECTATIONS -53.8 (FCST -40.5); JUN -28.0

  • The July ZEW survey saw a plunge in German economic sentiment, with current situation perceptions diving 18.2 points to -45.8. The expectations index saw a more severe fall of 25.8 points to -53.8.
  • Both indexes are over 10 points weaker than the March/April lows on the initial war shock (and initial pandemic March 2020 lows), cancelling out improvements seen in last month’s current climate and expectations -- which were largely a recalibration of stark falls in optimism at the onset of the Ukraine war.
  • Outlooks regarding Nord Stream 1 are concerning, generating substantial uncertainty for German industry as gas supply during this week’s maintenance works is seen as foreshadowing supply issues at the end of the year. As such, energy-intensive and export-oriented industries saw significant falls in outlooks, alongside private demand expectations weakening further.
  • This combined with supply bottlenecks worsened by Chinese lockdowns, soaring commodity prices and imminent tightening of monetary policy by the ECB sees the German economy facing significant challenges in H2.

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