Zloty Advances Alongside Forint, S&P M'fing PMI Improves

EUR/PLN has edged lower as the zloty and forint are the best EMEA performers, with their CE3 peer CZK lagging behind. The pair last deals at 4.6116, down 133 pips on the day. Technically, bears look for a dip through the 20-EMA/round figure at 4.6002/4.6000, which would open up the 50-EMA at 4.5507. Bulls see the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 2022 - Jul 2023 bear leg at 4.7072 as their initial target.

• Market participants are preparing for another live NBP rate decision this week. As things stand, half of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg have pencilled in a 25bp rate cut, but 6 expect no change, 8 are looking for a 50bp cut and one sees a 75bp reduction. Uncertainty around the interest rate outlook is elevated, with investors struggling to find clarity in recent NBP communications.
• Poland's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 43.9 in September from 43.1 prior, exceeding the 43.6 consensus forecast. The accompanying commentary noted that "the latest survey data raised hopes that Poland's steep manufacturing downturn since mid-2022 had passed the worst phase".
• POLGB yield curve has twist flattened at the margin. The WIG20 Index has shed 0.5% this morning.