Zloty Advances, M'fing PMI Beats Expectations

EUR/PLN has shed 90 pips to last trade at 4.3460, with the zloty edging ahead of its regional peers HUF and CZK. POLGB curve has bull flattened at the margin. Technically, bears look for a dip in EUR/PLN through Mar 4, 2020 low of 4.2870. Bulls see the 20-EMA at 4.3832 as their initial target.

• Sell-side analysts are holding conflicting views on the future rate path, albeit there seems to be broad consensus that the NBP will stand pat at its final meeting of this year next week. The coming months should bring some more clarity on the key parameters, with the incoming pro-EU administration set to provide more clarity on its fiscal policies and with the NBP set to publish an updated macroeconomic forecast in March. This may result in a reassessment of Poland's rate outlook, possible leading to a greater convergence in analysts' views.
• Poland's Manufacturing PMI reading for November topped expectations, coming in at 48.7, with S&P commenting that the data offered "some hope that the current severe downturn in manufacturing has bottomed out," despite "another marked drop in new orders, plus a sharper decline in backlogs and a rise in finished goods inventories".