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Zloty Edges Ahead Of EMEA Peers

PLN

EUR/PLN has lost some altitude, while the zloty tops the EMEA pile at typing, despite the absence of notable local catalysts. The Fed's monetary policy decision provides the main risk event today. The pair is probing the water below 4.42 and is approaching key support from 4.4138, which limited losses on Jul 4.

  • Poland's 6-Month WIBOR and 3-Month WIBOR have crossed below the NBP's reference rate (6.75%) amid expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates this autumn. That being said, the recent days have seen a slight correction to the implied medium-term NBP outlook, even as 3x6 FRAs have been little changed, while a couple of sell-side desks wrote that the current rate-cut bets seem quite aggressive. The next NBP monetary policy decision is due September 6.

Fig. 1: PLN FRAs

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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